Vice President Kamala Harris, 58, married to attorney Douglas Emhoff with two stepchildren, and an estimated net worth of $6 million, faces significant challenges in gaining favor among Texas voters. According to a recent poll by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University, Harris has an unfavorability rating of 56% among likely voters in the state. This rating is slightly worse than President Joe Biden’s 55% unfavorability and notably higher than former President Donald Trump’s 49%.
Poll Results
The poll, conducted between June 20 and July 1, reveals that Harris’s potential as a replacement for Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket may not be well-received in Texas. The polling period occurred before the June 27 presidential debate, which led to some high-profile Democrats and donors urging Biden to reconsider his candidacy due to concerns about his health and stamina.
Despite recent national polls suggesting Harris is gaining ground over Biden against Trump, her path to winning over Texas voters remains steep. Renée Cross, Senior Executive Director of the Hobby School of Public Affairs, who co-conducted the poll, expressed skepticism that opinions of Biden and Harris among Texans would shift dramatically post-debate. “Most Texas Democrats, while they may have to hold their nose, are still supporting Biden because they don’t like the other guy,” Cross remarked. She added that Harris might have experienced a minor bump in favorability, but she wouldn’t “bet on it.”
Demographic Support
Harris’s support base among Texas voters shows some variation across different demographics. Notably, she has an 81% approval rating among Black voters, slightly higher than Biden’s 79%. However, Harris continues to receive criticism from both sides of the political spectrum. Republicans are critical of her simply due to party alignment, while more progressive Democrats criticize her tough-on-crime stance from her tenure as a prosecutor in California.
Harris has been actively working to strengthen her appeal to voters of color, which was highlighted by her recent appearance in Dallas. She served as the keynote speaker for Alpha Kappa Alpha, a historically black sorority, but chose not to engage with the press following the event.
Generational Divide
The generational divide among Texas voters also plays a crucial role in the polling dynamics. President Biden holds a six-percentage-point lead over Trump among millennial voters, while Trump leads Biden by three points among Gen Z voters. This generational split reflects the broader challenges Harris and the Democratic Party face in appealing to younger voters in Texas.
Implications for Local Politics
The poll results also have significant implications for local Texas politics, particularly for U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, who is challenging U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz for a Senate seat. Josh Blank, Director of Research for the Texas Politics Project, suggested that a potential Harris presidential campaign might create fewer challenges for Allred, who has made efforts to distance himself from Biden.
Currently, Cruz leads with 47% support among likely voters, compared to Allred’s 44%, with 6% undecided and 3% planning to vote for Libertarian candidate Ted Brown. This narrow margin contrasts with a previous poll from UT-Austin, which showed Allred trailing by double digits, highlighting the volatility of voter sentiment in the state.
Internal Party Dynamics
Within the Democratic Party, there is increasing concern about how Biden’s debate performance and overall campaign approach might affect down-ballot races. Harris’s relatively higher favorability compared to Biden among Texas Democrats could potentially be advantageous, especially since she is not contending with the crowded field seen during the 2020 Democratic primaries.
In a notable development, U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Austin recently became the first Democratic member of Congress to publicly call for Biden to withdraw from the race, citing the need for stronger leadership. Despite these calls, Biden reaffirmed his commitment to the campaign in a letter to congressional Democrats.
Future Campaigning
Looking ahead, both Biden and Harris have planned engagements in Texas. Biden is scheduled to speak at the Lyndon Baines Johnson Presidential Library in Austin and will participate in a one-on-one interview with NBC, set to air on Monday night. These appearances could potentially sway undecided voters and address concerns about the administration’s direction and leadership.
